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The “One China” Policy and Status Quo in the Taiwan Strait: A Gambit of Strategic Ambiguity

Written by Lourdes Ames-Rodriguez. “One China” and “status quo” are two contested concepts at the centre of the cross-Strait tension. This article argues that while differing interpretations of the concepts have been instrumental in maintaining short-term peace in the Taiwan Strait, they ultimately hinder prospects for a lasting, peaceful resolution by entrenching opposing positions and delaying necessary political decisions.  

The Illusion of “Taiwan Doesn’t Have to Choose”

Written by Huynh Tam Sang and Truong Tuan Kiet. This article argues that Cheng Li-wun’s claim that “Taiwan doesn’t have to choose” is implausible and misaligned with the current geopolitical context. Taiwan must accept the painful reality that neutrality is an illusion. It does not have the luxury to simply opt out of the geopolitical tug-of-war between the U.S. and China and should adopt the “porcupine strategy”.

Fearful Summitry: Xi Jinping’s Meeting with Donald Trump and Implications for Taiwan and Cross-Strait Relations

Written by Jacques deLisle. This article argues that though Taiwan avoided the worst imagined outcomes from the Trump-Xi summit, the uncertainty and, in turn, the fears yielded by the meeting reflect, and are likely to worsen, the challenges Taiwan faces in cross-Strait and international relations. For Taiwan, all of this means deepening challenges in evaluating risks and making difficult policy choices.

Against Independence?: Shifts in US Posture on Cross-Strait Relations As a Second-Order Effect of the Rise of Cheng Li-Wun

Written by Brian Hioe. This article suggests that the state of play for cross-strait relations has taken an unexpected turn in the past months. In a relatively short time, Cheng Li-wun was not only able to secure a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but indirectly caused US President Donald Trump to echo her language on cross-strait relations through Xi.

Between the Two Summits: Taiwan’s Quiet Marginalisation

Written by Meng Kit Tang. The piece examines how the recent Trump–Xi summit in Beijing reflected a broader shift in U.S.-China relations: Taiwan was increasingly treated as secondary to great-power stability. It argues that Beijing is combining diplomatic pressure, narrative shaping, and economic leverage to constrain Taiwan internationally, while Washington prioritises predictability and managed competition with China.

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