Written by Baosheng Guo. This article highlights four contradictions in the US’s 2025 National Security Strategy, including the tension between defending Taiwan and the Retrenchment strategy toward China, burden-sharing exceeding allies’ tolerance, aligning allies’ actions with US interests, and maintaining American soft power while abandoning Taiwan’s democratic values.
Written by Shen Ming Shih. This article describes that China’s late-2025 “Justice Mission” exercise around Taiwan functioned more as political signalling than as a credible rehearsal for war. Despite the expanded scale and proximity, the drills exposed operational constraints, ineffective cognitive warfare, and diminished deterrent value while further internationalising the Taiwan Strait and underscoring Taiwan’s readiness.
This article examines whether Taiwan’s record NT$1.25 trillion defence package in 2025 strengthens deterrence or unintentionally accelerates strategic and demographic risk. The piece argues that both major parties rely on the same unspoken assumption that the United States will intervene decisively. It proposes a viable third path that balances readiness with societal resilience.
Written by Chieh-Ting Yeh. This article reviews an eventful year of 2025 in Taiwan-US relations. Defence and trade continue to be the most important issues of the bilateral relationship under the Trump administration. It argues that the narrative surrounding it is fundamentally reactive and does not inspire hope or action. We need a more robust, imaginative, positive, optimistic, uplifting, inspiring, forward-looking, and hopeful narrative for US-Taiwan relations.
Written by Gerrit van der Wees. This article suggests that Taiwan-US relations in 2025 were turbulent. The year was marked by contradictory presidential statements, unprecedented congressional activism, and the codification of Taiwan’s strategic importance in U.S. defence and security planning. The latest PLA military exercise indicates that 2026 will be even more turbulent.
Written by Baosheng Guo. This article analyses Taiwan’s options in the face of Trump’s uncertain and unpredictable Taiwan policy. It suggests that Taiwan should urge the US to provide strategic clarity and strengthen its relationship with Europe. Taiwan should also weaponise the interdependence of its semiconductor industry with the US and prepare to restart its research and development of nuclear weapons.
