Written by Dr Chieh-chi Hsieh. This article argues that the KMT will suffer more substantial political backlash than the TPP both in the short term and long term. The KMT legislators will face the nationwide recall motions, while the TPP will not lose any of their legislators. The KMT is also going to bear the electoral cost of the internalisation of the cross-Strait confrontation.
Written by Dafydd Fell. There have been a number of major changes in Taiwan’s party system since the November 2022 local elections. This article analyses the decline of Taiwan’s movement parties from the perspective of party system factors and suggests strategies these parties can adopt.
Written by Jasper Roctus. The polls have closed, and Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won the Taiwanese presidency, beating Hou Yu-ih of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). With Lai’s victory, 2024 became the first (post-democratisation) Taiwanese presidential election, where the same party’s nominee was elected three times in succession. Different from its triumphs of 2016 and 2020, the DPP did not emerge from the elections scot-free. Lai ‘only’ obtained forty per cent of the vote compared to Tsai Ing-wen’s two majority landslides, and the DPP lost the legislative majority it had enjoyed since 2016. Although this result aligned with earlier predictions, there is still a lot that merits further discussion.
Written by Jonathan Sullivan. Taiwan has concluded its eighth direct election of the Republic of China (ROC) President. It was not a pivotal, watershed or critical election, and it was not a contest between war and peace or the embodiment of democracy vs authoritarianism; it was an entirely normal election. The main issues (China, the economy), turnout (71%), the communications environment (parochial and partisan), the candidates’ micro-scandals (this time round requiring knowledge of esoteric building code and land-use regulation), the boisterous rallies and hustings etc were all familiar and part of the routine functioning of Taiwanese democracy. The Central Election Commission once again organised a flawless election. The nuts and bolts of voting stations in temples and school gyms, accurate and fast analogue counts, volunteers getting people lined up and in and out smoothly, etc, are the little things that add up to a big sum.
Written by Chia-hung Tsai. Taiwan’s 2024 presidential and legislative elections, held on 13 January, concluded peacefully, revealing key insights into the electorate’s priorities. The results highlight that voters are influenced by both their sense of Taiwanese/Chinese identity, especially in the context of cross-strait relations, and their pragmatic concerns for personal, tangible interests, for instance, low income, high inflation, high unemployment rate and unaffordable housing prices for average middle class in Taiwan. These transcend ideological or identity boundaries. The dual factors set the stage for the critical governance issues and candidate personalities that defined the election.
Written by Brian Hioe. The TPP has proven that it is a force with staying power in Taiwanese politics, then–for at least the next four years. Questions about the long-term viability of the party still remain. This is particularly regarding the party’s relationship with its chair, Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, and how the TPP will relate to the KMT as the larger party in the pan-Blue camp.
