Written by Min-Hua Chiang. This article explores the potential impact of higher tariffs under the second Trump administration on Taiwan’s export-oriented economy. It argues that Taiwan’s manufacturing industry remains resilient with its history of coping with changing geopolitical relations. It could even encourage Taiwan’s companies to invest overseas.
Written by Brian Hioe. This article discusses how can Taiwan responds to Trump’s election better than in 2016. Although the structural conditions remain the same, Taiwan may seek to reassure Trump on security, trade and industrial policy. Taiwan also needs a strategy to forge regional and international links to mitigate the uncertainty of a second Trump presidency.
Written by Gerrit van der Wees. This article explores what Donald Trump’s election victory means for Taiwan, including reviewing Trump’s previous positions towards Taiwan and his potential appointments in the new administration. Future US-Taiwan-China relations will be determined by Trump’s views and inclinations and the views and attitudes of his lieutenants.
Written by Daniel Jia. Taiwan does not need and must avoid having a Taiwanese version of Donald Trump. However, Taiwan must be ready for a second Trump term unfavourable to Taiwan’s security. The new Trump administration would resume the economic-centred relationship with China as it did in the first term, likely at the cost of Taiwan’s international status and sovereignty. Taiwan cannot change Trump. But Taiwan can and must show the free world its resolve to defend itself like what Ukraine has been doing. With this unwavering resolution, Taiwan would have the chance to rally international support in the event of a China invasion. Then, and only with this determination, could Taiwan bring the US public and Congress to its side and mandate the lukewarm Trump to act as Biden in the current Ukraine-Russia war.
Written by Ian Inkster. As Joseph Cummings has summarised recently for Redaction Politics, ‘experts believe that Mr Biden’s policy will fall short of provocation of mainland China and Mr Trump’s open empowerment of Taiwanese militarisation,’ and there is little reason yet to discount that view. The fact that the US has approved recent arms purchase deals with Taiwan may mean no real change in the long history of less-than-best military techniques being sold off to Taiwan as part of the old cold-war alliance.
Written by Jacques deLisle. As the Biden administration takes office, expectations—and, in many quarters, hopes—are high that much will change in American foreign policy. U.S. policy on Taiwan-related issues, however, is not likely to shift fundamentally. That is an outcome that should be – and generally will be -welcome in Taiwan. The relationship’s foundations may be strengthened, and apparent post-Trump setbacks are likely illusory. For Taiwan, reasons for concern mostly lie elsewhere, in the fraught U.S.-China relationship, the mounting challenges posed by Beijing, and questions about how the U.S. will respond.
