Written by Carlos Francisco Torres Morales. Using an alliance framework, this commentary argues that Tokyo and Seoul’s reluctance to convey support to Taipei publicly stems from strategic caution, since this could provoke the undesired effects they would seek to deter by extending clear security assurances, but also to retain flexibility in their redefining their stances vis-à-vis Taiwan (and China).
Written by Meng Kit Tang. As tensions rise in the Taiwan Strait, military deterrence has become the dominant narrative. This article argues that renewed dialogue, economic pragmatism, and people-to-people exchanges are equally vital for long-term stability. Drawing on historical precedents and current developments, it outlines practical pathways to reduce risks and rebuild trust.
Written by Michael Reilly. This article argues that the implications of Donald Trump’s tariffs for Taiwan are much more serious than a potential 0.43% hit to its GDP growth because the US and China are its two largest export markets, placing Taiwan on the front line of the trade war. Nevertheless, the choices of Taiwan are likely to be forced upon it by the decisions of American companies.
Written by Jacques deLisle. Amidst the focus on potential radical impact under the second Trump administration, this article examines some fundamental trends and challenges in US-Taiwan relations and US-China-Taiwan dynamics. The longstanding US policy of strategic ambiguity is becoming increasingly harder to hold and Taiwan’s capacity to navigate is waning.
Written by Chen-Dong Tso. This article reviews the cross-Strait strategy of the Biden administration after President Lai characterised the two sides of the Taiwan Strait as “mutual non-subordination”. The administration adopted a nuanced approach of both restraint and support, which the incoming Trump administration might not follow.
Written by Chia-wei Chao. Trump’s return to the presidency could reshape the global energy landscape, challenging Taiwan to navigate a more uncertain climate policy environment. By proactively addressing geopolitical risks, energy flows, and trade opportunities, Taiwan can safeguard its climate ambitions while maintaining robust ties with the US.
Written by Fang-Yu Chen. This article examines how a potential second Trump presidency could reshape U.S.-Taiwan relations, highlighting that while core policies may remain stable, Trump’s transactional approach and rhetoric could affect bilateral ties and public perception. It also emphasizes that Taiwan must strengthen its multi-faceted diplomatic strategies to maintain international support for Taiwan Strait issues, regardless of U.S. leadership changes.
Written by Chieh-Ting Yeh. This article argues Taiwan has what it takes to thrive in the face of increased volatility in US-Taiwan relations. Regardless of the potential US internal and international turmoil, Taiwan should find a set of principles and mid-term strategic goals and develop its own value.
Written by Min-Hua Chiang. This article explores the potential impact of higher tariffs under the second Trump administration on Taiwan’s export-oriented economy. It argues that Taiwan’s manufacturing industry remains resilient with its history of coping with changing geopolitical relations. It could even encourage Taiwan’s companies to invest overseas.
Written by Brian Hioe. This article discusses how can Taiwan responds to Trump’s election better than in 2016. Although the structural conditions remain the same, Taiwan may seek to reassure Trump on security, trade and industrial policy. Taiwan also needs a strategy to forge regional and international links to mitigate the uncertainty of a second Trump presidency.
Written by Gerrit van der Wees. This article explores what Donald Trump’s election victory means for Taiwan, including reviewing Trump’s previous positions towards Taiwan and his potential appointments in the new administration. Future US-Taiwan-China relations will be determined by Trump’s views and inclinations and the views and attitudes of his lieutenants.
Written by Brian Hioe. The US and Taiwan signed the first stage of the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade in June, paving the path for both to streamline customs and taxation procedures between both sides. The trade agreement will also boost economic cooperation regarding small-to-medium-sized enterprises, while implementing anti-corruption measures. Progress on the trade agreement has continued, with the second negotiating round of the agreement starting in August. In particular, an end to double taxation between the US and Taiwan is a concrete outcome that both sides may pursue, long a stumbling block for those that work and do business in both the US and Taiwan. As progress on the US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade has continued, legislation to this effect has been introduced in the US Senate.
Taiwan Insight 