Written by Gerrit van der Wees.
Image credit: 賴清德/ Facebook.
The results are in: Lai wins the presidency.
After a hard-fought campaign, the DPP candidate “William” Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bikhim emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election race with 40.1 % of the vote. They were elected Taiwan’s President and Vice-President respectively. The total turnout was 71.8% of the eligible voters, a bit lower than the 74.9% in the 2020 elections.
The main opposition candidate in the three-way race, Messrs. Hou Yu-ih of the Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang Party, and his running mate, pro-China media personality Jaw Shaw-kang, received 33.5% of the vote, while Mr Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and his running mate Cynthia Wang, came in a respectable third with 26.5% of the vote.
In his acceptance speech on the evening of Saturday, January 13, Mr Lai Ching-te thanked the Taiwanese people for “writing a new chapter in our democracy.” He added, “we have shown the world how much we cherish our democracy.”
He then described his win as “a victory for the community of democracies,” saying that it was a choice between authoritarianism and democracy, that the Taiwanese people “will stand on the side of democracy” and that Taiwan will “continue to walk side-by-side with democracies from around the world.”
He also said that through their actions, the Taiwanese people have successfully resisted efforts from external forces (read China) to influence this election. He added: “Only the people of Taiwan have the right to choose their own President.” He concluded: “the country will continue to walk on the right path forward. We will not turn around or look backward.”
But in the elections for the 113-seat Legislative Yuan, the picture was more complicated: overall, the DPP lost its absolute majority and won only 51 seats, a drop of 12 from the current 63 seats, while the Kuomintang won 52 seats, an increase of 14 from the current 38 seats. The TPP increased its number of seats from the current 5 to 8 seats. With just a few seats, Mr Ko of the TPP will thus play an important role in the legislature as a “Kingmaker,” as he can lean towards either the KMT or DPP to give them a majority.
Below, we present some of the implications for Taiwan and the world, highlight some of the important moments in the campaign, and take a look at the situation in the Legislative Yuan.
Implications and Immediate Reactions
The fact that these elections were held in the first place and the way they were conducted, was a sign that democracy has grown roots in Taiwan. These were the eight democratic presidential elections on the island since the transition to democracy in the early 1990s, which saw three changes of power in 2000, 2008, and 2016. It was a hard-fought campaign in which the candidates and parties expressed their differences clearly.
Aside from Beijing’s attempts at influence meddling (more on that below) – it was a free and fair voting and counting process, conducted openly and efficiently by the Central Election Commission. After the results were out, the opposition parties accepted the outcome, and Hou and Ko called Lai to congratulate him.
The outcome represents an unprecedented third consecutive term for the DPP, albeit under a new President, Lai Ching-te. It will enable the DPP to solidify Taiwan’s international position, further strengthen its defence and security, and continue its social and economic policies, such as care for the elderly, renewable energy, high-tech industrial policy and transitional justice.
The outcome was welcomed by Taiwan’s major partners, the United States, Japan and Europe. In a statement from Washington, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken congratulated Mr Lai Ching-te on his victory in Taiwan’s presidential election and congratulated the Taiwan people “for once again demonstrating the strength of their robust democratic system and electoral process.”
Japan’s de facto ambassador to Taiwan, Kazuyuki Katayama of the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association, stated that “Taiwan’s democracy is strong and vibrant” and said that Japan will “continue to work with Taiwan’s current and next governments and all stakeholders in Taiwan to develop friendly ties between Taiwan and Japan and maintain peace and stability in the region.”
The EU also welcomed the election and congratulated voters, saying, “our respective systems of governance are founded on a shared commitment to democracy, the rule of law and human rights.” It also underlined that “peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are key to regional and global security and prosperity and emphasised that it “remains concerned about growing tensions in the Taiwan Strait and opposes any unilateral attempt to change the status quo.”
However, the outcome is a bitter pill for the CCP rulers in Beijing, who conducted an all-out campaign to prevent the election of Mr Lai, who they painted as “a dangerous separatist” and “a threat to peace”.
A rejection of Beijing’s threats and coercion
Taiwan’s voters obviously thought otherwise, and in spite of China’s shrill threats and intimidations, voted in Mr Lai and his VP running mate Hsiao Bikhim with a comfortable majority over the more China-friendly Kuomintang of Mr Hou Yu-ih, and the “Third Force” Taiwan People’s Party of Mr Ko Wen-je.
For the United States, Japan, Australia and Europe, the outcome is very positive, as Taiwan will now continue its pro-Western approach with the steady and even-handed policies of President Tsai Ing-wen, which have provided a solid basis for Taiwan’s strengthening and deepening relations with those countries for the past eight years.
The main issue will be how to push back against any overtly hostile reactions by the PRC. Most observers expect the PRC to react strongly and perhaps conduct some military manoeuvres in the general proximity of the island – like it did after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited in August 2022.
However, the US and other countries have warned that anything beyond that would immediately have repercussions for trade through the Taiwan Strait. In view of the vulnerable state of China’s economy, this would be seriously detrimental to China itself.
Just two days before the elections, in a briefing by the White House, the US praised Taiwan’s democratic process, strongly protested Beijing’s interference in the election process, and stated that any decision by Beijing to respond with additional military pressure or coercion would be considered provocative.
A campaign overshadowed by Chinese threats and influence operations
In the long run-up to the elections, China conducted increasingly threatening influence operations. As soon as the ruling DPP selected Mr Lai Ching-te as its candidate in May 2023, Beijing painted him as “an extremist” and threatened that his election would “lead to war.”
This theme was picked up by the opposition China-friendly Kuomintang party, which adopted the phrase, “if the DPP wins, your son will have to go to war.” The DPP responded with the counterpoint: “If the KMT wins, Taiwan will become like Hong Kong.”
The latter phrase referred back to the 2020 elections, during which Hong Kong police brutally put down large-scale protests in Hong Kong against new extradition legislation at the behest of Beijing. President Tsai, at the time, strongly supported the protesters, while then-KMT candidate Mr Han Kuo-yu (who is now leading the KMT’s legislative slate) took a wishy-washy position.
Back to the current election campaign: All through the election period, Beijing’s operatives spread disinformation through the internet, which was then picked up by Taiwan’s Blue (the colour code for the Kuomintang) news media. Fortunately, the issue was highlighted by several foreign media, such as Financial Times, Reuters, Politico, Washington Post and New York Times, which shone a bright light on it.
Domestic issues: affordable housing and entrée wages
To be sure, not everything revolved around Taiwan’s relations with China. Particularly, the generation of young adults felt that the elections were an opportunity for their voice to be heard on issues directly affecting their livelihoods, such as affordable housing and entrée-level wages.
During the past years housing prices, particularly in Taipei, had gone through the roof, while wages for young people just out of college had stagnated. The candidate who responded most positively to these sentiments was Mr Ko Wen-je, the surgeon-turned-politician who served as mayor of Taipei from 2014 until 2022 and who, in 2019, formed his own Taiwan People’s Party.
After announcing his candidacy in May 2023, Mr Ko presented himself as a “Third Force” between the DPP and KMT and argued that as a fresh face, he would be in a better position to rule the country and negotiate with the Chinese. His position on housing and wages initially attracted considerable support from particularly the younger generation. In the early part of the campaign, he actually scored higher in the opinion polls than the Kuomintang.
But after his ill-fated mid-November 2023 attempt to link up with the Kuomintang in a joint ticket, his poll numbers went down, as young people – disappointed with the merger attempt as well as his positions on nuclear power, same-sex marriage, and re-starting negotiations on the Service Trade Agreement with China – moved away from Ko.
A complex picture in the Legislative Yuan
The results in the Legislative Yuan present a complex picture: The ruling DPP lost its absolute majority and went down from 63 to 51 seats, while the Kuomintang increased from 38 to 52 seats. A lot will depend on how Mr Ko’s TPP – with eight seats – positions itself: will it side with the DPP, with the KMT or will it shift its position according to the issues?
In this regard, it is important to look at Mr Ko’s personal leanings: at the beginning of his political life back in 2014, he was close to and supported by the DPP. But as time progressed, he became closer to the KMT in many of his positions, particularly vis-à-vis China. However, his run-in with the Kuomintang in mid-November 2023 left harsh feelings and a significant scar, so much so that in December 2023, he stated that he was “deep green at heart.”
The first litmus test of Mr Ko’s position will be in early February 2024, when the Legislative Yuan convenes and elects its President: will he side with the KMT or DPP?
Conclusions
These elections show clearly that democracy has now grown roots in Taiwan. It was a hard-fought campaign in which the candidates presented their opinions clearly and forcefully.
In spite of Beijing’s military and economic threats and influence meddling and disinformation campaigns, the voters were able to assess the differing positions, come to a conclusion, and cast their votes without fear or intimidation.
The strong presence of the international media and the clear statements by the US government and Congress on free and open elections certainly were important factors in guaranteeing a vibrant election campaign and a free vote in a democratic Taiwan.
The new DPP government will be continuing its policy of strengthening its alliances with like-minded democracies such as the US, Japan, Australia and Europe and expanding its economic ties worldwide in order to diversify away from China.
Tension may rise in the short term as Beijing expresses its opposition and does some sabre-rattling. However, if the US and its allies display solid support for Taiwan through diplomacy, economic measures, and military deterrence, China’s room for manoeuvre is limited, and Beijing will have to back off.
Collectively, the free and open democracies of this world need to strongly impress upon the rulers in Beijing that the best way forward would be to come to a peaceful coexistence with a free and democratic Taiwan.
Gerrit van der Wees is a former Dutch diplomat who currently teaches the history of Taiwan and US relations with East Asia at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. He has also taught US relations with East Asia at the Elliott School for International Affairs at George Washington University in Washington, DC.
This article was published as part of a special issue on ‘What does the 2024 Taiwan election tell us?‘.
Taiwan Insight 