Written by Raian Hossain.
Image credit: 05.20 總統出席「就職慶祝大會」並發表就職演說 by 總統府/ Flickr, license: CC BY 2.0 DEED.
The Republic of China (ROC), often known as Taiwan—a self-governed democratic island only 100 miles away from the communist People’s Republic of China (PRC) across the Taiwan Strait—Is probably the biggest flashpoint of the geopolitics of the twenty-first century. Since being elected in January, there has been serious concern regarding Lai Ching-te’s inaugural address, given his past deep pan-green political identity. On 20th May, Lai took over the presidential office and delivered his inaugural speech, which was balanced and emphasised maintaining the status quo, meaning no former reunification and no call for independence. Analysing his speech reveals a continuation of former President Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-strait policy but with a more Taiwan-centric emphasis. In his inauguration speech, he emphasised defending the island’s democracy and asked the PRC to restrain from political and military intimidation. Despite showing the necessity of improving Cross-Strait ties on a people-to-people level, he has deliberately tried to showcase Taiwan’s status and not be the subordinate of mainland China. The PRC, which considers Taiwan as part of its territory, has shown a strong reaction by launching scale military drills as a ‘punishment for separatist acts‘ days after Lai’s address. This article decodes Lai Ching-te’s inaugural address from three focus points: 1) Democracy as a roadmap for Taiwan, 2) Lai’s vision for Cross-Strait Relations, and 3) Domestic Agendas.
Democracy as a Roadmap for Taiwan
In outlining Taiwan’s future vision, Lai has explicitly emphasised the importance of democracy in maintaining peace and stability domestically, regionally, and globally. Notably, the word democracy appeared 31 times during his address, indirectly showing how the island’s governance differs greatly from the Chinese Community Party (CCP), which governs mainland China. This, in a way, also reassures his domestic audience and global friends about how his administration’s two-level game would fundamentally be based upon the principle of democracy. Additionally, his inauguration speech aimed to depict Taiwan’s role in the global democratic community, especially amid the prevailing democracy versus authoritarianism narrative in the international political landscape. While having high-ranking officials or parliamentary delegations from functioning democracies like the US, Canada, the UK, Japan, and Germany, he reminded the necessity of sticking with a value-based approach and sharing a common democratic identity. Lai’s speech, gave a message towards democracies around the world about how Taiwan is a significant player in a wider geopolitical competition, which is not to be ignored.
Besides emphasising Taiwan’s importance as a global democracy, his address also highlighted Taiwan’s geoeconomic significance to global democracies. In connecting the dots between Taiwan’s geopolitical and geoeconomic significance, Lai said, “We are a key player in supply chains for global democracies. For these reasons, Taiwan influences global economic development, as well as humanity’s well-being and prosperity.” His references illustrated how Taiwan is an asset to the global democratic community. Indirectly, he sought to convey that the fall of Taiwan to the PRC would threaten the stability of the entire democratic community and disrupt the global economic supply chain. Therefore, analysing his inaugural speech, it is clear that Lai’s administration will emphasise maintaining political, economic, and security ties with like-minded democracies both regionally and globally. Lai broadened Tsia’s notion of the New South Bound Policy spirit of “Taiwan helps Asia, and Asia helps Taiwan” to the broader democratic world community by referring to “Taiwan needs the world, just as the world needs Taiwan”.
Lai’s Vision for Cross-Strait Relations
Decoding Lai’s proposal of Cross-Strait relations, it can be understood that contention between Taipei and Beijing will remain while official channels of dialogue and communication are certain to remain closed. Given how he deliberately tried to distinguish between the ROC and PRC, Beijing did not welcome Lai’s idea of Cross-Strait interaction. Compared to Tsai’s first inaugural speech in 2016, Lai has taken a stronger stand on Cross-Strait relations, which seems obvious given how the dynamics between Beijing and Taipei have changed over the last few years. Despite referring to the opportunity for dialogue between the two sides of the strait, Lai places the PRC as a military aggressor who uses coercion and intimation against the ROC. By doing this, he reflects that the act of ROC will depend on how the PRC behaves regarding Cross-Strait dynamics, meaning the ball is in Beijing’s court, not Taipei’s. Another attempt to distinguish between the two sides of the strait was how to name the island either by The Republic of China, Republic of China Taiwan or Taiwan. The debate over the name puts Beijing under serious anxiety and wonder about the future of Taiwan, which it wants to reunify.
Another notable factor related to the future of cross-strait dynamics is Lai’s ignorance of the 1992 consensus in his inauguration speech. Unlike Tsai in 2016, Lai avoided the indirect reference to the 1992 consensus, which made the PRC uncomfortable. These points suggest that the new administration will not be naïve in dealing with the PRC, given Beijing’s hardline stance on politically excluding Taipei and its frequent incursions into the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Therefore, Lai’s vision of cross-strait relations provides very little space for Beijing and Taipei to unite and sit at a table for dialogue. On the other hand, there is some positivity related to Cross-Strait relations he showed by welcoming tourism and student exchanges. However, these can be seen as strategic political words to showcase how Lai’s administration is open to certain engagements with the PRC to avoid being blamed by Beijing. As Taiwan is a functioning democracy, Lai did not want to disappoint his deep pan-green and pan-green voters by setting a very positive tone towards the PRC. In short, Lai’s vision of cross-strait relations is a textbook example of the two-level interaction between the international and domestic levels.
Domestic Agendas
Lai Ching-te’s inaugural speech also had a significant domestic focus. Reading between the lines, it is clear that domestic factors will be a crucial element for the new administration in the coming days. Lai discussed aspects which are long debated in Taiwan’s domestic politics, such as social housing, childcare, and wage environment. Despite how much Lai sets his ambition domestically, he will face the critical challenge of a divided government where the DPP controls the executive branch. In contrast, the legislative branch has a pan-blue majority. Understanding such challenges, he rightfully called for cooperation by mentioning, “I have high hopes for the future of cooperation between the central and local governments, as well as coordination between the executive and legislative branches”. His domestic agenda is also shaped by the economic and national security aspects, which circles to the famous idea of the silicon shield. Driven by his experience as vice president, he aspires to keep Taiwan at the top of technological and Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancements. Lai’s domestic agenda also touches on human security dynamics, such as climate change, and recognises the need for Taiwan to be a leader in net-zero transition. Therefore, besides the need for engagement with democracies and keeping peace on cross-strait dynamics, the domestic angles will also play a significant role in the Lai administration’s decision-making.
In conclusion, Lai’s inaugural speech maintained the status quo. Despite his approach being bolder than Tsai’s 2016 inaugural speech, he was cautious, recognising that being too provocative toward Beijing could disappoint its strategic partner, Washington. His speech shows how he plans to drive Taiwan’s relations with democracies worldwide, cross-strait dynamics and shaped by domestic factors.
Raian Hossain is a Doctoral Researcher at the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham (UK). Mr Hossain is also a lecturer (on study leave) at the Department of Global Studies and Governance (GSG), Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB). His research interests include Indo-Pacific studies, small and middle powers, Asian geopolitics, comparative International Relations, the Taiwan Issue in Sino-US Relations, and Bangladesh’s politics and foreign policy. Raian’s ‘X’ handle is ‘RaianHossain6’.
This article was published as part of a special issue on ‘Presidential Inauguration‘.
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