Author: Adrian Chiu

The 2024 Taiwanese General Elections: Fierce Moderate Lai Prevails While Fluid Kingmaker Ko Rises

Written by Jasper Roctus. The polls have closed, and Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has won the Taiwanese presidency, beating Hou Yu-ih of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Ko Wen-je of the upstart Taiwan People’s Party (TPP). With Lai’s victory, 2024 became the first (post-democratisation) Taiwanese presidential election, where the same party’s nominee was elected three times in succession. Different from its triumphs of 2016 and 2020, the DPP did not emerge from the elections scot-free. Lai ‘only’ obtained forty per cent of the vote compared to Tsai Ing-wen’s two majority landslides, and the DPP lost the legislative majority it had enjoyed since 2016. Although this result aligned with earlier predictions, there is still a lot that merits further discussion.

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Taiwan Election 2024: What it Means for the Island’s Future Engagement with the Asia-Pacific Region

Written by Raian Hossain. Now that the election results are in, the period of intense suspense and electoral speculation has concluded. The issue of cross-strait relations remains unresolved, as the People’s Republic of China (PRC) insists that the Republic of China (ROC), often known as Taiwan, is a separatist province of the mainland and aims for reunification. For the first time in history, Taiwan has re-elected the same political party to govern the democratic island for a third consecutive term. The election of Lai Ching-te on Saturday signifies a strong counter to the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) forceful stance and intimidation tactics towards the island. The primary challenge now is how Lai’s new government will maintain its relations with Beijing and navigate the complex triangular dynamics of the US, China, and Taiwan.

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Taiwan’s elections over, new hope for Taiwan’s healthcare

Written by Tsung-Mei Cheng. The January 13 presidential election in Taiwan marked a historic moment in the nation’s burgeoning democracy. For the third consecutive term, voters reaffirmed their confidence in the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which has been at the helm for the past eight years, entrusting it with the nation’s leadership for another four-year term. High on the agenda of the returning third DPP administration are pressing issues both international, cross-Strait, and domestic. This essay will focus on the future of health care in Taiwan, an important domestic issue that directly impacts the lives of Taiwanese and calls for urgent attention and actions of the new-returning administration and policymakers.

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Taiwan’s New President: Continuity, Priorities, Vision

Written by Chieh-Ting Yeh. As recent developments transition into a period of stability, the focus shifts towards what lies ahead. The incoming government faces pivotal questions: How will President Lai’s four-year term compare to President Tsai’s preceding eight years? What key challenges await immediate attention from President Lai? Additionally, it’s crucial to consider the direction in which Taiwan is heading to carve its unique identity in the global landscape.

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Taiwan People’s Party as the Kingmaker: What future holds for the party?

Written by Brian Hioe. The TPP has proven that it is a force with staying power in Taiwanese politics, then–for at least the next four years. Questions about the long-term viability of the party still remain. This is particularly regarding the party’s relationship with its chair, Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, and how the TPP will relate to the KMT as the larger party in the pan-Blue camp.

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A Battle for Survival : The Crossroads of the New Power Party without Huang Kuo-chang

Written by Jonathan Leung. Throughout the years, there has been continuous withdrawal of significant party members. Most of them have joined the DPP or become its affiliates. Some core members quit the party for controversial reasons, like Kawlo Iyun Pacidal and Hsu Yung-ming. Most of the NPP’s notable social influencers, scholars, and intellectuals also withdrew from the party in the past few years. In a nutshell, the NPP is facing a serious problem of decomposition. Yet, the most updated and unexpected news is former leader Huang Kuo-chang, their most iconic and representable figure, defected to the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in November right before the legislative nomination. This article will examine the crossroads of the NPP without Huang to project the possible path of the party. 

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“The Will of the Chinese People”: Beijing’s Narrative of Invading Taiwan

Written by Kuang-shun Yang. For decades, Taiwan has lived under Beijing’s constant military threat of “reunification.” However, Taiwan is often portrayed by Chinese propagandists as a “troublemaker” capable of destabilising the Indo-Pacific region or making China “upset about everything we [Taiwan] do, about our existence,” as Taiwan’s ex-ambassador to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim noted. Taiwan’s independence, be it a political appeal or an objective reality, is provocative to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP’s mouthpieces have effectively convinced numerous international observers to discourage Taiwan’s quest for independence and characterised Taiwan’s autonomy as an affront to the Chinese people.

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Does “Hong Kong Influence” Linger in the 2024 Taiwan Election?

Written by Sanho Chung. It has been widely recognised that Hong Kong’s Anti-Extradition Movement in 2019 was the turning point of the 2020 General Election in Taiwan. In the last general election, Beijing’s hardline crackdown on the protests in Hong Kong gave rise to the Taiwanese’s mistrust of China and finally brought a big win to the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which was expected to lose both their majority over the Legislative Yuan and their presidency. But after three years of National Security Law (NSL) enactment in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong issue in this general election seems no longer as focal as it was. How should we make sense of this huge contrast in attention? Has “Hong Kong Influence” faded out totally?

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As Two Go Blue, will Green be the Tertius Gaudens of Taiwan’s 2024 Elections?

Written by Jasper Roctus. What then transpired in November went completely beyond general expectations. While a desponded Gou could have been expected to go independent or join forces with Ko Wen-je, the former mayor of Taipei (2014–2022) and founder of the third force, “white” (白) Taiwan People’s Party, an outright electoral pact between Hou and Ko seemed out of the question. The idea that Ko, who in the past has been perceived as greener than even the DPP as he, for instance, mingled with student protestors during the 2014 Sunflower Movement and later stumped for deep Green rockstar Freddy Lim, would join forces with the KMT representative of the establishment he claimed to loathe, seemed a contradiction in terms.

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Why are the 2024 elections seemingly less competitive than the 2020 elections?

Written by Brian Hioe. Compared to the 2020 elections, it has often been remarked that the 2024 elections have been decidedly less competitive. Certainly, this does seem to be true, in that for most of the election cycle, DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te has been ahead. Nevertheless, what are the structural factors at work here, which differentiate the 2024 elections from the 2020 elections? We might take a look.

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Taiwan’s Presidential Elections in Full Swing

Written by Gerrit van der Wees. Mid-November has thus fundamentally changed the picture of the campaign. The addition of Hsiao Bi-khim as VP candidate has reinvigorated Lai Ching-te’s campaign, while on the Blue-White side, the move to attempt a merger of the tickets had backfired and set bad blood. With Hou Yu-ih and Ko Wen-je running separate campaigns, the differences are now becoming increasingly clear.

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