Written by Jacques deLisle. Whoever holds the presidency in Taiwan after 20 May 2020 will need to navigate especially challenging relations with Washington and Beijing. Under Xi, Beijing has taken a tougher line, squeezing Taiwan’s international space, poaching its diplomatic partners, and chilling cross-Strait ties. It is not clear that China’s more demanding and assertive posture stems solely from dissatisfaction with Tsai, whose cross-Strait policy has emphasised stability and continuity.
Unexpected Scenarios and Unpredictable Outcome? A discussion of Taiwan’s 2020 Presidential Election
Written by Mei-chuan Wei.
Given the unexpected scenarios in the KMT and DPP primary elections and the aforementioned complex factors that have always impacted upon Taiwan’s politics, the outcome of Taiwan’s 2020 presidential election is uncertain. Another uncertain element is Taipei City Mayor and former doctor at the prestigious National Taiwan University Hospital, Ko Wen-je.
Cross-Strait Relations, Diplomacy Key Variables Behind Support For Han Kuo-Yu: Survey
Written by Timothy Rich. Han Kuo-yu surprised many observers with his victory in the Kaohsiung mayoral race in November, the clearest example last year of a Kuomintang (KMT) candidate faring above expectations in a south historically dominated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). This “Han wave” now appears to have propelled Han as a viable presidential candidate for the January 2020 elections…
Taiwan’s 2020 Election: The KMT’s Downturn and the DPP’s Emergence in the Game of Thrones
Written by Ljavakaw Tjaljimaraw. This strategy did work in the short run in terms of party competition. From 2000 to 2008, the DPP, despite playing as Team America B, found itself caught between two unfavourable situations. On the one hand, the KMT’s “Go West” advocates stirred up an avaricious “China craze” of United Front-driven bonuses, bribes, or subsidies handed out to people from all walks of life.
Taiwan’s 2020 Election: A Battle between Team America and Team China
Written by Ljavakaw Tjaljimaraw. While Taiwan is still in a state of limbo over who will win out among the candidates running for the presidency, the overall pattern of the 2020 election is becoming quite clear: it will be, for the first time, a battle between “Team America” and “Team China,” instead of the competition between Team America A and Team America B that appeared in the course of Taiwan’s democratisation in the 1990s.
The Mess Before the Storm: Making Sense of the Blue and Green Camps’ Primaries
Written by J. Michael Cole. In recent months, no subject has been brought up more often by Taiwan watchers than the party infighting that has been developing within the blue and green camps in the lead-up to Taiwan’s general elections next January. Much of that interest stems from the impact that the candidate selection, and of course the election itself, will have on Taiwan’s future external policy at a time of unprecedented engagement opportunities for the island-nation.
How Taiwan Became “Unsafe”: The forgotten moment of crisis during Taiwan’s democratisation
Written by Sam Robbins. The tragic cases of Liu, Peng, and Bai happened at a critical intersection in Taiwan’s transition from authoritarianism.
Cross-Strait Narratives of Now and the Future
Written by Michael Mazza. Taiwan’s November 2018 nine-in-one elections looked like a major setback for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. The DPP won only six
Key takeaways from the Taiwan elections
Written by Lauren Dickey. On Saturday, 24 November, the people of Taiwan went to the polls to vote for over 11,000 local-level officials and voice
Analyzing the DPP Electoral Debacle
Written by Bruce Jacobs. The dramatic DPP defeat in the last local elections has surprised everyone on both sides of politics. The elections were very
A “Blue Wave” in Taiwan?
Written by Gerrit van der Wees. In the recently-held US mid-term elections, there was talk of a “blue wave”: the possibility that the Democrats /Blue
The New Battle for the Third Place in 2018: A Breakthrough but also a Missed Opportunity
Written by Dafydd Fell. Four years ago on the eve of the last round of local elections in Taiwan I wrote a piece looking at