Written by Dr Chieh-chi Hsieh. This article asks the question of whether Trump’s tariffs on Taiwan signal a potential divergence of his foreign policy on cross-Strait relations. It argues that although the country needs to remain cautious, the long-term impact might be less severe than one expects. Recent developments suggest that the Trump administration has not altered its foreign policy.
Written by Peter C.Y. Chow. This article assesses the impact of Trump’s tariffs from a global trade perspective. It argues that the effects of tariffs in reducing trade deficit remain indeterminate. Applying it to all trading partners will affect US relations with its allies, including Taiwan, and challenge the rules-based trade system that the US nurtured since the end of World War II.
Written by Alexander C. Tan. This article argues that Taiwan finds itself in a uniquely vulnerable position in the shifting landscape of international trade. The Taiwanese economy is heavily reliant on international trade. Taiwan is also excluded from major regional trade agreements such as the RCEP and CPTPP, limiting its options for diversifying trade relationships and mitigating the impact of tariffs.
Written by Tom Meinderts. This article discusses the effects of Trump’s tariffs and the options available for Taiwan’s trade policies. Given the importance of the US market for Taiwan’s semiconductors, it is unsurprising that Taiwan has already started negotiations to lower the tariffs. As other options remain unattractive, these negotiations may become the most important in Taiwanese history.
Written by Guan-Yi Leu. This article analyses the effects of Trump’s tariffs on Taiwan economically and geopolitically. The main concern in Taiwan was the uncertainty and unpredictability caused by the policy. It also discusses Taiwan’s response to it, both in terms of government and businesses. Taiwan’s economy has shown resilience amidst geopolitical risks and has weathered previous conflicts.
Written by Dean P. Chen. In response to Beijing’s escalating coercive campaigns and military harassments of Taiwan, the Biden administration has primarily followed the Trump government’s pro-Taiwan stance. The U.S. State Department, in a statement on January 23, 2021, calling out China to “cease its military, diplomatic, and economic pressure against Taiwan,” reaffirmed that the U.S. commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid.”
Written by Douglas Paal. In the early 1970s, I studied in Tokyo during the first OPEC-generated energy crisis. Against all prevailing common anxiety about the long-term shortage of energy, The Economist published a cover story entitled “The Coming Oil Glut,” which correctly predicted that demand would induce increased supply. It did. I was duly impressed.
Written by Michael Mazza. The new Biden administration will have its hands full from day one. Even as it focuses its energy on finally getting a handle on the COVID-19 pandemic, the administration will have to recalibrate its China policy, making numerous decisions about which aspects of the Trump administration’s approach to keep and which to jettison. Beyond China, it will have to meaningfully strengthen alliances and security partnerships worldwide, make a decision about how best to rein in Iran’s nuclear program going forward, and work quickly to preserve (or not) the New START arms control agreement with Russia. Taiwan policy, on the other hand, should not require significant deliberation in the early going.
Written by Gerrit van der Wees. As the United Nations General Assembly is preparing to meet in New York for its annual gathering, the international community is facing multiple issues in all parts of the world that need to be resolved. Among all of those issues, there is one burning question: why is a free and democratic Taiwan not part of the gathering? Why is a vibrant democracy being excluded from the international family of nations?
Written by Fumiko Sasaki. The Trump administration has intensified its anti-China campaign. Consequently, rhetoric has been strongly pro-Taiwan. Due to the increased negative sentiment toward China in the U.S., the presidential candidate from each party will need to take a tough stance toward China to win the election. Regardless of the election outcome, President Tsai Ing-Wen should not anticipate such trends to continue and must be wise in aligning with allies inside the U.S.
Written by Dean P. Chen. On March 26, 2020, as the United States is under enormous pressure coping with the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic sweeping across the globe, President Donald Trump signed into law the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act of 2019. Passed unanimously by the two chambers of U.S. Congress — the Senate in October 2019 and House in March 2020 — the act pushes for enhanced American government support for Taiwan’s international participation. It thus requires the State Department to report to Congress on steps taken to strengthen the island democracy’s diplomatic relations with other partners in the Indo-Pacific region.
Written by James Lin. While the TAIPEI Act affirms US support, it does not change the capitalist structure of the international political economy, nor the hard economic and political advantages Beijing holds over Taipei and, to a certain degree, Washington. The United States is no longer in a position to shape the United Nations, or the Bretton Woods system, as it did in the immediate post-World War II moment. Even if Taiwan regains some of its diplomatic allies, Taiwan’s international existence is precarious without formal membership in international organizations and formal diplomatic recognition from the majority of the world’s nations.
Taiwan Insight 