Written by Daniel Jia.
Image credit: 01.20 總統農曆春節談話 by 總統府/ Flickr, license: CC BY 2.0.
The perspective of Taiwan (the government, political forces, and the people)
The Taiwanese government, as the administrative body of a democratic state, is currently facing a formidable challenge from both external and internal sources. While China’s aggression towards Taiwan is widely acknowledged, many Taiwanese citizens are beginning to realise that the significant differences between Taiwan’s and China’s social structures outweigh any cultural similarities between the two nations. However, it is important to note that only a few people recognise that these differences could be easily erased if China imposed its rule upon Taiwan, as it did with Hong Kong.
The people of Hong Kong have offered Taiwan a glimpse of what life could be like if it were to come under China’s rule.
A dangerous belief, which has been propagated by a few and spread throughout Taiwanese society via the media, is that Taiwan’s military preparedness could actually provide China with the perfect excuse to launch a military attack against Taiwan.
The flag-bearer of this naïve and misleading view is Terry Gou, the founder, and former Chairman of Taiwan’s Foxconn. His famous advice as a presidential election contender to his fellow Taiwanese is: “[Taiwan] should rely on peace for national defence” instead of buying weaponry from the US. This perception of China’s aggression towards Taiwan is fundamentally incorrect.
China’s strategy towards Taiwan has already been firmly established, as outlined in the CCP’s road map for the coming decades unveiled during its 20th National Congress. Thus, China does not require an excuse to initiate military action against Taiwan and is simply waiting for the right opportunity to do so. Xi, in his speech, stated, “It is only natural for different people to have different concerns or hold different views on the same issue.
What matters is that we build consensus through communication and consultation.” But allowing the Taiwanese people to decide the future of Taiwan is not considered a valid and acceptable view by Xi and the CCP, just as the Chinese people are not allowed to freely express their opinion on virtually anything without facing the consequences unless they agree with the official scripts.
Suppose Taiwan again falls into China’s “charisma trap” and allows its ultimate self-defence capability and military strength to weaken. In that case, the consequences for Taiwan could be far more severe than previous economic exploitation – it could lead to the loss of Taiwan’s sovereignty altogether.
To safeguard Taiwan’s sovereignty, the government of Taiwan must fight on two fronts: deterring China’s military attempt and reaching a consensus among the Taiwanese people on how to best defend Taiwan.
On the former front, the Tsai administration is on the right track by enhancing Taiwan’s military readiness for China’s invasion. Facing China’s accelerated military harassment, “our steady-handed response showed the world Taiwan’s resilience and determination to defend our freedom,” Tsai praised Taiwan’s defence readiness in her 2023 New Year’s address.
However, more hard work needs to be done on the latter front. In her New Year’s remark, Tsai reminded the people of Taiwan, “Protecting our homeland is not just the duty of our armed forces; it is a joint responsibility that every single citizen should shoulder.” But Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) seemed to face enormous obstacles to winning over voters from rival political parties at local levels, as shown by its unexpected major loss in the “nine-in-one” local elections in 2022.
The biggest winner of the 2022 Taiwan local election was the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). This pro-China political force won 13 out of the 22 mayoral and county positions open for grabs. (For comparison, the ruling DPP scored only five.) And the most striking outcome came from Taipei’s mayoral race, in which the DPP’s candidate Chen Shih-chung, who led Taiwan’s success in COVID-19 response during the first two-and-a-half years of the pandemic, lost to the young Wayne Chiang Wan-an of the KMT by 10.36 percentage points.
Although Taiwan’s local elections mainly focus on issues concerning municipal and county affairs rather than national security and cross-Strait relationship, the remarkable victory of the China-pacifying KMT in the 2022 election amid rising tension across the Taiwan Strait and increased military harassment from China is still a warning sign for the DPP and for those who are resolved to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty.
No one, including Xi himself, can predict when China will turn its military harassment into a large-scale invasion of Taiwan. But what is all but certain is that if the DPP wins the 2024 presidential election, China will step up its military activities against Taiwan as a reprimand. Conversely, if the DPP loses, the winning party (likely to be the KMT) might take a China-accommodating stance or even attempt to exert its administrative and legislative powers to forge ahead and ratify the reunification with China in the name of peace.
The people of Taiwan will have to make a crucial choice in 2024 between two divergent paths. The first one means hardship and imminent danger of going to war with China, but the prize is that the people in tomorrow’s Taiwan will be free of China’s aggression and coercion. The second is an easy path to peace for the present generation, at the price of coming generations’ liberty and freedom under China’s rule.
The decisive battle yet to be fought.
Xi was right, but only partially, by saying, “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are members of the same family.” The two people might have shared common culture in the past. But Taiwan and China have marched in opposite directions for 70 years. One embraced democracy, and its people enjoyed harmony and prosperity. The other sees democracy as the biggest threat; its people have been living in constant fear and persistent poverty.
To China, Taiwan’s very existence is a constant reminder of a contrasting reality – a democratic state amidst the authoritarian rule of the CCP. China’s desire to take control of Taiwan is not primarily driven by a desire for wealth but rather by a desperate need to eliminate the stark contrast between their two forms of government. A free Taiwan represents a significant challenge to the legitimacy of the CCP, which claims to bring prosperity to China and its people through its hold on power.
Taiwan values the current peace and freedom, not only because they bring prosperity to Taiwanese society but also because they are the result of decades of struggles against Chiang Kai-shek’s authoritarian regime before the advent of democracy in Taiwan. As such, all possible efforts must be made to safeguard these hard-earned gains. However, as some Taiwanese political parties and business organisations advocate, surrendering Taiwan’s sovereignty to Beijing as a means to avoid a war with China would be a serious mistake. The temporary preservation of peace and prosperity that may result from such a surrender would be short-lived, as evidenced by the loss of freedom and sovereignty in Tibet and Hong Kong. Moreover, a Taiwan stripped of its liberty and freedom would no longer be Taiwan but rather just another subjugated territory within mainland China, joining the ranks of Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang, and others.
Daniel Jia is the founder of consulting firm DJ Integral Services. He authors analytical reports on public-related matters, focusing on China-related cultural and political issues. There is no conflict of interest to be disclosed.
This article was published as part of a special issue on ‘Cross-Straits relations 2023’.
Taiwan Insight 