Written by Thomas J. Shattuck.
Image credit: US-Taiwan-European Next Generation Working Group.
In early June, UC Berkeley’s U.S.-Taiwan-European Next Generation Working Group participated in a week-long delegation visit to Taiwan to meet with US, European, and Taiwanese officials to discuss a range of topics. Regardless of the meeting, the official, or the speaker’s country of origin, there was a common refrain: Taiwan is a small country. Some version of a comment on Taiwan’s small size haunted the delegation meetings.
That mindset and related implications—stated and unstated—have the potential to diminish Taiwan’s role in the world and devolve into a spiral of defeatism.
One implication is clear: Taiwan is so small, especially compared to the People’s Republic of China, its main adversary. What chance would Taiwan have against a country so much larger?
That’s not the attitude that local and foreign diplomats and politicians should employ when speaking to a delegation.
Just ask Ukraine, which is turning the tide against Russia, which is 28 times larger than Ukraine. That war has now lasted longer than World War I.
True, geographically, Taiwan is a small country. This article does not seek to dispute that fact.
What it seeks to dispute is that Taiwan’s relatively small landmass is the only thing that matters for geopolitical importance and influence. After all, Taiwan is larger than Israel. And no one seems to question Israel’s ability to project an outsized role in international affairs.
There is an immense danger in the normalisation of “small state-itis” in Taiwan. It almost pre-accepts the fait accompli that Beijing hopes to achieve against Taiwan in the event of a military invasion.
There are other ways to look at a country, and with that, a country’s influence around the globe or ability to defend itself.
Let’s start with another metric: population. Taiwan has approximately 23 million people. When compared to China’s 1.4 billion, Taiwan’s population may again seem comparatively small. But taking other perspectives elucidates other possibilities.
Taiwan’s population is double that of Israel. And if Taiwan were a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, it would have the tenth highest population in the Alliance of 32 countries.
However, the problem with the population comparison is that Taiwan is now considered a super-aged society. More than 20 per cent of the country’s population is over the age of 65. And Taiwan has the lowest birth rate in the world. Whatever Taiwan’s population number or advantage may be, it will only decrease. China is also rapidly ageing, narrowing the demographic gap with Taiwan.
Beyond counting people, other key economic indicators demonstrate Taiwan’s outsized influence. Taiwan’s stock market recently became the fifth largest in the world after overtaking India. Only the United States, China, Japan, and Hong Kong have bigger stock markets.
The key danger in this metric is obvious: TSMC accounts for 42 per cent of TAIEX, so a decline in demand for semiconductors would likely decimate Taiwan’s global stock market ranking. The other large stock markets are likely not as reliant on one company to drive such a surge.
In addition to the stock market, Taiwan’s per capita gross domestic product (GDP) surpassed South Korea and Japan. It ranks fourth in the region, after Singapore, Macau, and Hong Kong. That figure is also tied to TSMC’s global dominance, but it does provide a better sense of how the average person is doing compared to the stock market.
And speaking of TSMC, it accounts for around 70 per cent of the global foundry market. The second-place Samsung only accounts for 7.2 per cent. That figure demonstrates a significant level of geoeconomic importance that is incomparable.
Another area to consider is the defence space. According to the Ministry of National Defence, Taiwan’s defence budget (accounted for in NATO standards) is NT$949.5 billion, which is 3.32 per cent of GDP. That figure ranks around 20th globally, comparable to Singapore. Taiwan ranks 8th in the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index for defence spending.
The final key area to evaluate is in Taiwan’s foreign relations. These numbers, on the face of it, do not look great. Only 12 countries maintain formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Despite that low number, Taiwan has a relatively strong passport. The Henley and Partners’ Global Passport Ranking puts Taiwan at 34th globally with 135 visa-free entries.
Beyond the passport, Taiwan has an unofficial diplomatic presence in 59 countries (including Somaliland). And there are around 60 diplomatic missions—official and unofficial—in Taiwan. That’s not too bad considering its diplomatic isolation. That figure points to the geoeconomic importance of Taiwan.
There are plenty of numbers, figures, and percentages that can be provided to evaluate where Taiwan stands globally. Taiwan rarely tops a list outside of its semiconductor prowess. But that does not make Taiwan small.
There are also things that cannot necessarily be given a number that give Taiwan geopolitical importance. Perhaps the most important such “thing” is Taiwan’s location in the Indo-Pacific region. It’s in the heart of the first island chain, making it an impeccable security partner for the United States and its allies in the region. Taiwan’s location has made it a critical security node since the colonial era. Serving as the “cork in the bottle” and an unsinkable aircraft carrier are critical for regional security, no matter how big Taiwan is, because the island sits snugly between two key waterways connecting Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to the Western Pacific.
That’s a pretty important role for any country, especially one with such limited natural resources and diplomatic relations. Maybe that’s the narrative that diplomats, officials, and politicians should take to heart, not one emphasising how small Taiwan is and how little it can do politically.
When the battle over the narrative is important in an age of social media, clickbait, and disinformation, it is important for Taiwan and like-minded countries not to do Beijing’s job for it.
Taiwan may be a geographically small country. But there is so much more to geopolitical influence than landmass. And when looking at those figures, Taiwan plays a larger role in the world than one would expect. There is little reason for diplomats and government officials to adopt “small state-itis” when referring to or thinking about Taiwan. Taiwan’s economic power and geostrategic location outweigh the constraints of its small landmass.
Thomas J. Shattuck is a Senior Program Manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. He is a 2026-28 Scholar at UC Berkeley’s U.S.-Taiwan-European Next Generation Working Group and a 2026 member of the Aspen Strategy Group’s Rising Leader Program. His research focuses on cross-Strait relations, Taiwanese and Chinese domestic and foreign affairs, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, and the US role in the Indo-Pacific. He is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
This article was published as part of the special issue on U.S.-Taiwan-European Next Generation Working Group.