Written by Jonathan Leung.
Image credit: 李四川Hammer Lee; 蘇巧慧/ Facebook.
Calm Political Atmosphere: Advantages for Both Sides
Local elections have historically served as a midterm review for the incumbent president, posing significant challenges for the ruling party, as policy outcomes often elicit more public criticism than praise. Nevertheless, the current political landscape does not appear unfavourable to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Instead, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT)’s upcoming performance seems increasingly overshadowed by its own internal challenges. Historically, major political movements and heightened cross-strait tensions have bolstered the DPP’s performance. While cross-strait relations and the overall political climate have remained relatively calm in recent years, intense parliamentary confrontations between the government and the opposition do not appear to be a central focus of this local election. Instead, it is a calm election testing the Greens’ local mobilisation and the Blues’ capability to overcome internal challenges.
Optimism is steadily growing within the DPP. Following a major defeat in the 2022 local elections—where they secured only 5 out of 22 mayoral and magistrate seats, primarily in deep-green strongholds—the party essentially hit rock bottom. Given this historic low, five seats represent the worst possible outcome. Consequently, any improvement beyond this baseline will be viewed as progress, while gaining three additional seats, a highly plausible scenario, would be deemed a decisive victory. The DPP and the Lai administration’s primary advantage lies in the low bar set by their dismal performance four years ago. Because they do not need to win a majority of seats for the election to be seen as a success, Lai’s leadership within the party faces minimal threat.
A calm political atmosphere is precisely what the KMT hopes for during election cycles. Because heightened cross-strait tensions often provoke existential anxiety and surging patriotism, the DPP frequently leverages these sentiments to mobilise pan-green voters. Conversely, the KMT excels at mobilising grassroots support through its deep-rooted local factional networks and patronage ties. A tranquil political environment allows the KMT to consolidate its base, while hindering its opponent’s ability to rally patriotic voters. Furthermore, because the KMT currently governs 17 municipalities, it would retain control of half of Taiwan even if it lost five cities, allowing the party to claim victory based on its overall share of governance.
However, current stability does not appear to favour the KMT, largely because of its internal vulnerabilities. This article examines why this local election poses greater challenges for the KMT than the DPP, analysing key municipal contests and the ongoing leadership struggles within the pan-blue camp.
Cheerless Fights: Predictable Campaigns in Central Taiwan
In Taiwanese political commentary, the phrase “Battle of Central Taiwan” (決戰中台灣) reflects the common perception of Central Taiwan—encompassing municipalities such as Taichung, Yunlin, Changhua, and Chiayi—as a region of swing jurisdictions. Because these areas host a substantial share of moderate or undecided voters and are aligned with neither the pan-blue nor pan-green coalitions, they have traditionally served as bellwethers for national general elections. However, the decisive political battleground does not appear to be in Central Taiwan this year; instead, the political spotlight has shifted northward.
Electoral dynamics in Central Taiwan appear unusually predictable and stable compared to previous cycles. Taking Taichung City—the region’s sole special municipality (直轄市)—as an example, the Kuomintang (KMT) maintains a strong lead. Johnny Chiang, former KMT chairman and incumbent Deputy Speaker of the Legislative Yuan, faces substantial pressure to secure a win, given his standing as one of the party’s most prominent rising leaders. Enjoying nationwide popularity, Chiang waited eight years for this opportunity after narrowly losing to incumbent mayor Lu Shiow-yen in the 2018 primary. Current polling indicates that he holds a steady lead over Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) nominee and legislator Ho Hsin-chun.
Conversely, the situation in Changhua County is markedly different, as a controversial KMT nomination has plunged the local party branch into turmoil. The party’s decision to nominate the controversial Wei Ping-cheng over stronger alternatives led incumbent magistrate Wang Huei-mei, also a KMT member, to withhold her endorsement and align with the DPP. Consequently, DPP candidate and legislator Chen Su-yueh maintains a consistent polling lead. Beyond Changhua, the KMT has also effectively conceded Chiayi City. Failing to groom a suitable successor for outgoing mayor Huang Ming-hui, the KMT left the field open for former Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) legislator Chang Chi-kai. As a result, DPP candidate and legislator Wang Mei-hui is widely expected to win the city comfortably. Because electoral outcomes in Central Taiwan have materialised earlier than usual, these swing jurisdictions can no longer serve as reliable indicators for overall party performance. Uncharacteristically, the electoral frontline has shifted northward.
Greens’ Breakthrough Attempts: Unpredictable Campaigns in North Taiwan
“Battle of North Taiwan” should be the primary theme of this year’s elections. Uncharacteristically, the most fiercely contested races are all concentrated in the North, signalling a notable shift in swing dynamics. The fiercest battle is undoubtedly in New Taipei City, Taiwan’s largest and most populous municipality. Although DPP magistrates governed the area for 16 years during the former Taipei County era, the KMT has administered it for over two decades. From Eric Chu to Hou Yu-ih, the KMT has cultivated an image of pragmatic, professional governance, framing the nomination of Lee Shu-chuan, former Deputy Mayor of Taipei and an engineer by trade, as a logical continuation of the municipal administration.
The DPP nominated Su Chiao-hui, daughter of former magistrate and premier Su Tseng-chang, cultivating an image that is articulate, intellectual, and deeply rooted in the local community. Unlike previous mayoral contenders, Lee possesses minimal electoral experience, having never run for public office and traditionally maintaining a low profile. Conversely, Su is a three-term legislator representing the city, bolstered by strong local connections established during her father’s two terms as magistrate. Departing from the confrontational tactics and emotional rhetoric sometimes seen in parliament, Su presents herself as a polished professional with a legal background. Positioning herself as a fresh, dynamic candidate, she has become a formidable contender for the city’s first female mayor. While Lee lacks campaign experience and projects a mature image, opinion polls clearly reflect the contrast between the two candidates. Su has closed the gap with Lee over the past year and has even surpassed him in several surveys—a historic shift, given that past DPP candidates rarely led in polling for New Taipei mayoral elections. Hou won decisively with majorities of 300,000 and 450,000 votes in 2018 and 2022, respectively, cementing New Taipei’s reputation as a deep-blue stronghold. However, current polling suggests the mayoral race has become highly unpredictable, with the green coalition closer than ever. Following the rise of the ‘Puma O’Shen Wave’, the campaign in Taipei City also became more unpredictable. Although incumbent mayor Wayne Chiang still leads the poll, his lead has narrowed, as discussed further in the next article.
The other unpredictable contest in Northern Taiwan is Hsinchu County. It has long been regarded as a deep-blue stronghold with strong Hakka cultural influence. However, the expansion of the Hsinchu Science Park has led to a significant influx of young engineers. The DPP nominated Cheng Chao-fang, the incumbent mayor of Zhubei, who has cultivated solid local support through his initiatives to transform the city culturally and aesthetically. His established reputation makes him the lone DPP stronghold in Hsinchu. Initially reluctant to run for magistrate after a defeat in 2018, Cheng intended to seek reelection in Zhubei. However, after repeated persuasion from President Lai, along with internal KMT turmoil and the breakdown of the blue-white coalition, the DPP’s prospects of winning Hsinchu County have brightened considerably. In contrast, KMT candidate Hsu Hsin-ying harbours deep friction with Deputy Magistrate Chen Chien-hsien after the primary, leading Chen and his faction to refuse to endorse Hsu. Furthermore, joint KMT-TPP efforts to field a unified ticket in Zhubei collapsed. Polling indicates that TPP supporters are increasingly leaning toward Cheng, enabling his approval ratings to surpass Hsu’s in recent surveys and turning Hsinchu County into an unpredictable battleground.
The heads of Taiwan-Keelung and Yilan also face uncertainty. Keelung mayor George Hsieh of the KMT faces the challenge of Tong Tzu-wei, the Speaker of the Keelung City Council and Lai’s nephew. Although Hsieh has overcome the recall election, Tong has overtaken him in polls by a margin, with a large share of young voters preferring Tong. After the imprisonment of Yilan magistrate Lin Zi-miao of the KMT, polls in Yilan have shifted toward the DPP. The two small northern municipalities, Keelung and Yilan, have also become fiercely contested as the Greens have narrowed the margins.
Despite a less intense political atmosphere, another abnormal feature of the 2026 Local Elections is the shift in battlegrounds. The Swing cities are in the North, not in Central Taiwan this year, making the race more interesting. The media is mainly focusing on reporting opinion polls and campaigns in these northern swing cities, turning this local election into the Battle of North Taiwan. With this analysis across constituencies, the Greens’ attempt to break through threatens the Blues’ local administration. Many of the current Blue-held municipalities face a change in power at the end of the year. In the wider picture, this is also a preliminary primary race for the KMT as it prepares for the 2028 General Election, which the next article will discuss.
Jonathan Leung is a history teacher in Hong Kong. He earned his Master’s degree in history at SOAS, University of London and his Bachelor’s degree in history at the University of Sheffield. He completed his Postgraduate Diploma in Education in History and Humanities at the Hong Kong Baptist University. His research focuses on Taiwan’s post-war political and social history. His research interests focus on the lives and decision-making of prominent Taiwanese figures at critical moments, from broad to micro perspectives. His research topics include the histories of power struggles, party politics, elections, democratisation, social movements and institutional changes. He completed his Postgraduate Diploma in Education in History and Humanities at the Hong Kong Baptist University.