Category: Foreign policy

What A 2nd Trump Term Would Mean to Taiwan (and the US)

Written by Daniel Jia. Taiwan does not need and must avoid having a Taiwanese version of Donald Trump. However, Taiwan must be ready for a second Trump term unfavourable to Taiwan’s security. The new Trump administration would resume the economic-centred relationship with China as it did in the first term, likely at the cost of Taiwan’s international status and sovereignty. Taiwan cannot change Trump. But Taiwan can and must show the free world its resolve to defend itself like what Ukraine has been doing. With this unwavering resolution, Taiwan would have the chance to rally international support in the event of a China invasion. Then, and only with this determination, could Taiwan bring the US public and Congress to its side and mandate the lukewarm Trump to act as Biden in the current Ukraine-Russia war.

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Opportunities abound to ram up UK-Taiwan relations

Written by Huynh Tam Sang and Phan Van Tim. By and large, there are ample opportunities for the UK and Taiwan to deepen their relationship, given Taiwan’s geopolitical importance and rising prominence as a robust democracy and resilient economy. Moreover, should London genuinely devote its time and energy to pushing its “Indo-Pacific Tilt”, engaging with Taiwan would benefit London as it helps the great power establish a firm footprint in the area while demonstrating the country as a responsible stakeholder in the region.

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Fair Go for Taiwan: Perspectives from Taiwanese diaspora in Australia

Written by Mei-Fen Kuo. A recent exhibition mounted by Australia’s government office in Taiwan––“40 years, 40 stories”––highlights the importance of people-to-people ties linking Taiwan and Australia since the office opened in Taipei in 1981. These are timely stories. In an exhibition of its own, Beijing recently lobbed missiles over Taiwan’s people’s heads to show that its territorial claims to Taiwan will not be slighted. Australia does not challenge those claims, but it does maintain close relations with people in Taiwan through trade, education, technology, and cultural exchanges, which have flourished despite the lack of official recognition.

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INDIA-TAIWAN RELATIONS: RIGHT TIME TO MOVE AHEAD

Written by Jasinder Singh Sodhi. Relations between India and Taiwan have improved significantly over the last two decades, even though the two nations do not have formal diplomatic ties. This is because India officially recognises China as part of its One-China Policy. In the political field, India and Taiwan are both grappling with the Chinese standoff in the Himalayas and Taiwan Strait, respectively. Therefore, reinforcing India-Taiwan relations can stand up to the expansionist plans of China since China is incapable of launching a two-front war on India and Taiwan simultaneously. Thus, the stronger relations India and Taiwan have, the better results it will have for mutual national interest and national security.

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The Rivalry Between Mainland China and Taiwan: How They View Each Other’s Application to Join the CPTPP

Written by Liqiao Guo. This article clarifies how the mainland and Taiwan view each other’s applications and tries to find the similarities and differences by addressing three vital questions. First, what are the motivations for both sides, respectively? Second, Who and why do they think they can finally join? Third, what would the final result be and its impact on cross-strait relations and the Asian-Pacific region’s economic order? This research details some of the essential official statements and academic contributions to the overall debate on both sides. Although I primarily draw on official statements and academic contributions to elucidate the discussion, I also consider newspaper articles, mainly because they provide an insight into an influential and growing antagonistic perspective. 

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Taiwan’s Catalytic Role for Resilient Development in the CPTPP

Written by Peter C. Y. Chow. The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Transpacific Partnership (CPTPP) was considered as one of the pathways to a Free Trade Area of Asia Pacific (FTAAP) during the APEC meeting in 2014. Hence, membership enlargement in this trade bloc will enhance its sphere of regional influence, leading toward the path of free trade in the Asia Pacific. CPTPP is the highest standard of trade accord which includes what is not in the WTO-the WTO extra and those beyond the WTO- the WTO plus. Therefore, it symbolises a gold standard of trade liberalisation in the 21st century.

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The Political Challenges to Taiwan’s Bid to Join the CPTPP

Written by Tian He and Michael Magcamit. Taiwan is becoming increasingly isolated in the regional economy. The virtual signing of the RCEP on 15 November 2020 was a milestone for Asia’s regional economic integration. Although it is debatable whether the RCEP is a Chinese-led initiative, China is undoubtedly a significant player capable of shaping regional economic rules. Taiwan was excluded from this major trade deal despite being a technology powerhouse and an important trading nation that has spurred Asia’s integration with the world economy in the post-war period. Taiwan’s main regional economic competitor, South Korea, is far ahead of Taiwan regarding regional integration. It is believed that South Korea has free trade agreements (FTAs) with around three-quarters of regional economies. Under these circumstances, the CPTPP can be an opportunity for the Tsai administration to overcome its diplomatic isolation and revive the economy through deepening regional economic integration. Accordingly, Tsai has stressed the importance of the trade pact, stating that joining the CPTPP would strengthen Taiwan’s key strategic and economic position by further integrating the island-state with the rest of the world.

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Global Britain Goes to Southeast Asia: Investment Flows in an Era of Great Power Competition

Written by Guanie Lim and Xu Chengwei. In March 2021, the UK government published the ‘Global Britain in a Competitive Age’ report. Amongst other things, it sets out the UK’s four key objectives: upholding an international order supportive of liberal democratic values; contributing to the security of this order; building greater global resilience to the impacts of climate change, health insecurity, and related challenges; and pursuing an international economic agenda that strengthens the UK’s global competitiveness and supports the welfare of its citizens. One of the most practical measures to achieve such goals is to channel foreign direct investment (FDI) to outward-oriented economies, not least those with potentially enormous upside. Boasting the fifth-largest economic output in the world and a very favourable demography, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must figure prominently in the calculus of UK policymakers.

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Racing to Join the Club: A Canadian Perspective on the CPTPP

Written by Hugh Stephens. As Canada works to develop and roll out its new “Indo-Pacific Strategy,” its membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) has become a cornerstone in the strategy’s thrust of diversification in Asia away from China. This is part of a perennial concern to find new markets to help offset Canada’s high degree of trade dependence on the United States. Closer economic relations with Taiwan will likely be one outcome of this strategy, although China will remain an important factor. 

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Gatekeeper’s Dilemma: Japan Facing CPTPP Applications from China and Taiwan

Written by Saori N. Katada. For more than a decade, the Transpacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement has been vital to the Japanese government’s economic agenda. This mega free trade agreement encompassing the Asia Pacific, originally negotiated among twelve members, has aimed not only at creating a large free trade area among the members but also installing the most advanced trade and investment rules in the region. After joining its negotiation in 2013 and especially since the 2017 US exit from the agreement, Japan has been taking a leading role in shaping and protecting this scheme. Finally, in December 2018, the Comprehensive Progressive Agreement of the TPP (CPTPP) came into effect with the remaining eleven members. Despite the US absence, it began to attract interest among others to join.

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The Impact of the UK Joining the CPTPP: Its Strategy, Economic Merits and Domestic Constraints

Written by Minako Morita-Jaeger. The UK government is currently in the process of the CPTPP accession negotiation with the expectation of joining the organisation by the end of 2022. The UK is expected to be the preferred candidate to become the first new member. UK’s accession would change the nature of the CPTPP from a current like-minded regional Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) that promotes a rules-based international trade system to a cross-regional mega-FTA. This would create dynamism in the CPTPP for further expansion within and beyond the Asia-Pacific. 

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CPTPP Membership for Taiwan: Rationales, Challenges, and Outlook

Written by Roy Lee. Taiwan has been preparing for CPTPP accession for the last eight years. The economic importance of CPTPP for Taiwan is critical, as it is perhaps one of the limited options available for Taiwan to avoid being marginalised from the Asia Pacific regional integration process. This article starts with a review of key policy rationales for Taiwan’s CPTPP accession, then analyses major challenges and impediments, and offers thoughts on future prospects.

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