Three Happy Losers and One Winner: Comments on the 2024 Taiwan National Elections

Written by Chia-hung Tsai. Taiwan’s 2024 presidential and legislative elections, held on 13 January, concluded peacefully, revealing key insights into the electorate’s priorities. The results highlight that voters are influenced by both their sense of Taiwanese/Chinese identity, especially in the context of cross-strait relations, and their pragmatic concerns for personal, tangible interests, for instance, low income, high inflation, high unemployment rate and unaffordable housing prices for average middle class in Taiwan. These transcend ideological or identity boundaries. The dual factors set the stage for the critical governance issues and candidate personalities that defined the election.

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What Does Taiwan’s Presidential Election Outcome Tell Us About Its Economic Prospects?

Written by Min-Hua Chiang. William Lai (Lai Ching-te) of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) secured his election as Taiwan’s 16th president on January 13, 2024. As the DPP extends its rule for another four years, the administration is likely to maintain President Tsai Ing-wen’s economic policies, notably diversifying the economy away from China. Navigating Taiwan’s export-oriented economy through the evolving US-China relationship will pose the most significant challenge for the new administration. 

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Remembering Shih Ming-teh 

Written by Thomas J. Shattuck. On January 15, 2024, only a few days after the election, longtime democracy and human rights advocate, Nobel Peace Prize nominee, and politician Shih Ming-teh passed away. Given his place in Taiwan’s history and democratic development, it is important to remember him and his legacy. Shih is a widely known figure in Taiwan for his legacy in Taiwan’s democratisation and his role in the Kaohsiung Incident and Tangwai movement. He’s also famous for his role in the anti-corruption protests against then-President Chen Shui-bian in the early 2000s. Shih consistently called for Chen’s resignation and led the “Million Voices Against Corruption-Chen Must Go” campaign. For decades, he held politicians to high standards, and understandably so.  

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Taiwan’s New President: Continuity, Priorities, Vision

Written by Chieh-Ting Yeh. As recent developments transition into a period of stability, the focus shifts towards what lies ahead. The incoming government faces pivotal questions: How will President Lai’s four-year term compare to President Tsai’s preceding eight years? What key challenges await immediate attention from President Lai? Additionally, it’s crucial to consider the direction in which Taiwan is heading to carve its unique identity in the global landscape.

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Taiwan People’s Party as the Kingmaker: What future holds for the party?

Written by Brian Hioe. The TPP has proven that it is a force with staying power in Taiwanese politics, then–for at least the next four years. Questions about the long-term viability of the party still remain. This is particularly regarding the party’s relationship with its chair, Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je, and how the TPP will relate to the KMT as the larger party in the pan-Blue camp.

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Election win for the DPP, but a split legislature 

Written by Gerrit van der Wees. After a hard-fought campaign, the DPP candidate “William” Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bikhim emerged victorious in Taiwan’s presidential election race with 40.1 % of the vote. They were elected Taiwan’s President and Vice-President respectively. The total turnout was 71.8% of the eligible voters, a bit lower than the 74.9% in the 2020 elections. The main opposition candidate in the three-way race, Messrs. Hou Yu-ih of the Chinese Nationalist Kuomintang Party, and his running mate, pro-China media personality Jaw Shaw-kang, received 33.5% of the vote, while Mr Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) and his running mate Cynthia Wang, came in a respectable third with 26.5% of the vote.

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Neither Green nor Just: The DPP’s Reckoning with Environmental Justice 

Written by Dominika Remžová. The Russian weaponisation of gas supplies has sparked a renewed interest in Taiwan’s energy security, placing the DPP’s anti-nuclear policies at the centre of attention. On the one hand, both energy and national security experts have criticised the DPP’s continuing nuclear phase-out for pushing Taiwan, which in 2022 imported more than 97% of its energy, into an increasingly precarious position. The opposition, on the other hand, has criticised the party’s 2025 energy mix formula (i.e., 20% renewable energy, 30% coal, and 50% LNG) for its inconsistency with international trends, namely the increasing role of nuclear energy in global decarbonisation efforts, which the DPP countered by referring to industry-wide trends, such as the renewable energy focus of the RE100 initiative, instead.  

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Taiwan’s 2024 Presidential Candidates: How Do They Fare on the Climate?  

Written by Chia-wei Chao & Benjamin Yang. When it comes to the climate, all three candidates in Taiwan’s upcoming presidential election have emphasised the importance of taking action and committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The main driver behind this mainstreaming of climate policy is the fact that supply chain requirements have made the country’s export competitiveness highly connected to climate performance. Therefore, we must scrutinise the comprehensiveness of each candidate’s policy proposals, rather than solely relying on whether they are climate denialists, to distinguish their positions. Taiwan Climate Action Network (TCAN), a collaborative advocacy platform organised by five NGOs, has thus produced a climate commitment tracker to compare their positions on seven key climate-related policies: (1) 2030 emissions reduction target, (2) carbon pricing strategies, (3) 2030 power mix, (4) renewable energy development plan, (5) industrial decarbonisation, (6) public participation, and (7) just transition. In this article, we will focus specifically on their 2030 pledges, carbon pricing strategies, and just transition policies.

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Taiwan’s energy policy at the crossroads in the presidential election in 2024? 

Written by Anthony Ho-fai Li. Energy policy remains a highly controversial policy arena in Taiwan after democratisation, given its importance for Taiwan’s security, environmental sustainability and economic development. Under the presidency of Tsai Ing-wen, the agenda of “Nuclear-free Homeland 2025” (2025非核家園) proposed by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in 2016 has been subject to political challenges, which involved the debates about the use of nuclear energy beyond 2025 and the reduced capacity of coal-fired electricity plants for air pollution mitigation. The policy strategy to replace nuclear energy with rapid solar energy development has also faced enormous social challenges as its large-scale installation conflicts with the existing land uses. 

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A Battle for Survival : The Crossroads of the New Power Party without Huang Kuo-chang

Written by Jonathan Leung. Throughout the years, there has been continuous withdrawal of significant party members. Most of them have joined the DPP or become its affiliates. Some core members quit the party for controversial reasons, like Kawlo Iyun Pacidal and Hsu Yung-ming. Most of the NPP’s notable social influencers, scholars, and intellectuals also withdrew from the party in the past few years. In a nutshell, the NPP is facing a serious problem of decomposition. Yet, the most updated and unexpected news is former leader Huang Kuo-chang, their most iconic and representable figure, defected to the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in November right before the legislative nomination. This article will examine the crossroads of the NPP without Huang to project the possible path of the party. 

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“The Will of the Chinese People”: Beijing’s Narrative of Invading Taiwan

Written by Kuang-shun Yang. For decades, Taiwan has lived under Beijing’s constant military threat of “reunification.” However, Taiwan is often portrayed by Chinese propagandists as a “troublemaker” capable of destabilising the Indo-Pacific region or making China “upset about everything we [Taiwan] do, about our existence,” as Taiwan’s ex-ambassador to the United States Hsiao Bi-khim noted. Taiwan’s independence, be it a political appeal or an objective reality, is provocative to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The CCP’s mouthpieces have effectively convinced numerous international observers to discourage Taiwan’s quest for independence and characterised Taiwan’s autonomy as an affront to the Chinese people.

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